Welcome to the first ever installment of our Monday feature, "Dear Mr. Fantasy," where I make all your wildest fantasies come true. At least those related to fantasy football. So follow me as we go deep down into the depths of fantasy football lore. So join me as I answer a burning question, confess my itching desire, tell you about an amazing rookie, take a couple three point stances, and give you tips on how to draft in 2008.
You could pass on some big name QBs in favor of Favre in a late round, but beware: newsmakers usually get gobbled up quick. Chances are, by now everyone in your league knows about this saga, even if they were locked in a cave all month. So don't be surprised if you're expecting to take a flier on Brett in the fifth or sixth, to see him taken by your little sister in the third or fourth.
My Itching Desire: Getting Brett Favre
I'll talk about this later in more detail, but 2008 is a very questionable season for running backs. There's a handful of reliable guys, some unproven rookies, a lot of studs coming off injuries, and new starters throughout. So taking a RB or two early this year is a no-brainer. Which is why Favre is so intoxicating to me. There's a good chance you can pick him up in a late round, and there's a good chance he'll put up huge numbers like he did last year. You grab two stud RBs early and Brett Favre late, you can start clearing your plate in December, you're probably going to the playoffs.
But I wouldn't put the kind of faith in Favre I would in guys like Brees, Brady , and Manning. Draft a reliable backup or you might pay the price. With the Madden curse, rust, and the still uncertainty of either a new team or Rodgers winning the job, Favre is a more risky proposition than other stud QBS. So if you get him, make sure you have a Schaub or a Cutler waiting in the wings.
Thus concludes the obligatory Brett Favre portion of this column, we now return you to your regularly scheduled program.
Rookie to Watch: Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears will run the football. Repeat those words to yourself, take deep breaths, throw a dart at your Cedric Benson effigy head, and pick up Forte. I won't lie, Benson killed me last year in a few leagues. A first round pickup, he was the death of many fantasy teams in 2007, and I understand the wound is still fresh. But Forte is no Benson. The Green Waver of Tulane rushed for over 2,000 yards last season, averaging over 177 yards a game. In a span of three games last year, he had 820 yards. Yes, while Conference USA and the NFL are apples and oranges, if he even puts up half those numbers he's worth the value at where he's projected to get drafted.
This is a guy you can easily get in the third, fourth, maybe fifth round. Remember, every year at least one rookie running back has a breakout year. While most predict Darren McFadden is the guy, I think he is overvalued where he is being drafted. Because of playing at Tulane, nobody knows who Forte is, so he's going to be a steal. But in case you just miss out on picking him up, take the chance to look at Chris Johnson for the Tennessee Titans. Another C-USA guy, Johnson is a speedster who is gonna get a lot of playing time in run-first Nashville.
Three-Point Stance: RB's Who Suck
Willie Parker. Injury, Roethlisbeger, Mendenhall. These three words define why I don't like Parker at all this year. Parker's coming off a fractured fibula, not a good injury for a halfback. But even without it, he played 15 games last year, where he racked up a whopping two TD's all year. New coach Mike Tomlin has installed a pass first mentality in Pittsburgh with Big Ben pulling the strings. And even if they did reverse the trend and run more, the big bruiser out of Illionois, Rashard Mendenhall is going to see the bulk of the goal-line action.
Julius Jones. Free from the constraints of Marion Barber, Jones is set to fulfill the legacy of Shaun Alexander in Seattle. and by that I mean suck. In the Parker club of multiple TD's (2), Jones only rushed for 588 yards. But that was because the Cowboys were holding him back right? While Jones will see more action in Seattle, Maurice Morris is going to be sharing the load as co-starter.
Marion Barber. People are in love with this guy in 2008 and he's being taken extremely high on draft boards. I can't argue the numbers (12 TDS, over 1,000 total yards), but just name me one RB who did better when given the full-time position after being in a committee situation.
Three Point Stance: RB's Who Don't
Joseph Addai. My choice for number two pick behind LT. Manning's receiving corp is thinning while his O-line is getting better. His sophomore slump last year saw him hitting 15 TDs, and over 1,300 total yards. Look for him to bust out of a rut for a huge third year.
Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins suck. Ronnie Brown does not. While at first one can point to either the ACL injury or the departure of Cam Cameron as signs not to take him, I think the reward greatly outweighs the risk. Brown is looking great so far and the Dolphins can't throw the ball to save their life. With the addition of Jake Long, Anthony Fasano, and head coach Tony Sparano, all signs point to a 75/25 running to passing ratio. The only downside, Ricky Williams also is looking really good, and could see a lot of carries.
Larry Johnson. Anyone who saw HBO's "Hard Knocks" last year knew Johnson was going to suck in 2007. Just the way he was carrying himself reeked of overconfidence and a fat paycheck. But this year I think he has something to prove. Staying healthy would help, but so would one quarterback. I think the constant flip-flopping last year hurt LJ bad. Crappy or not, sticking with Brodie Croyle all season will help his numbers tremendously. Plus, Croyle's wife is smoking hot.
Draft Tips to Swear By: Take a Running Back Dammit!
While this advice gets pounded into the brains of young fantasy footballers at a tender age, I can't repeat it enough and this year holds especially true. Outside of the top four: LT, Addai, AP, and Brian Westbrook, there are only a handful of reliable running backs. It's almost impossible to win without at least one stud running back, so hedge your bets. The strategy that seems to work the best for me is a three-pronged attack.
First, take Mr. Reliable. If you can't get one of the top four guys I suggest guys like Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, or Willis McGahee.
Second, pick a guy with a lot of upside. Examples include anyone coming off injury: Brown, LJ, or Steven Jackson, or anyone who had an off-year last year: MJD, Reggie Bush, or Thomas Jones.
Third, take a rookie. As mentioned before, at least one rookie always has a huge year, and this year I think there could be three or four. There's the aforementioned McFadden, Forte, Mendenhall, and Johnson, but other guys to watch include Felix Jones in Dallas and Jonathon Stewart in Carolina.
Well this concludes the first ever Dear Mr. Fantasy. I hope these tips serve you well in the upcoming fantasy season, but really the best way to get a leg up this year is through mock drafts. They're free over at ESPN.com and are a great tool to preparing for where guys are going in this years draft. Next week I'm going to do a mock draft right before I write my column and will then analyze the first few rounds, telling you why I picked who I did. Until then, I'm Mr. Fantasy playing you a tune.
From now until the closing ceremonies WHAS will be highlighting various U.S. Olympic athletes in all their unabashed glory. This way when watching Taekwondo events with your blow-up doll girlfriend you'll impressively be able to point out that Americans Mark, Diana, and Steven Lopez are the first trio of siblings to compete together in the same sport and on the same Olympic team since 1904. Look for knowledge like that to pump some more air into that fulfilling relationship. So without further ado I present to you:
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